Winters are always Interesting With the approach of Winter, we all feel a little excitement in the air--will we get hammered with a big snow storm, ice storm, or other crazy weather? I think we all hope we're ready at home for a big winter storm and of course we're preparing for winter here at the NWS. A few years ago, our training would consist of refreshing ourselves with some of the old forecasting techniques and rules of thumb and going over our operational guidelines, etc. Usually, we would depend on a few minor events in November in the higher terrain to get us ready for the bigger storms in the heart of the Winter. Now we're fortunate to actually train on real winter weather with our Weather Event Simulator (WES) from Winter storms in previous years in our area or or from somewhere else. This simulator is essentially a mock-up of one of our work-stations that plays incoming weather information of an event from a previous Winter. Getting to actually go through the processes of analyzing and forecasting a real (recorded) event with real data is priceless. We're going through our paces with our training right now--practicing forecasting winter storms before the first snowflake has landed on top of ol' Smoky. One twist this year is that we are also training on forecasting extreme wind events in the mountains and foot-hills. David Gaffin, one of our Senior Forecasters, has been researching mountain wind events, and we're applying what he has learned in his research to our training. More Snow in the Forecast this Winter Okay, did that get your attention??? This winter we're adding another 24 hours to our actual snow forecast (that's what I mean in the title above--we'll be offering more fore-casting of snow). Last year, the snow accumulation fore-casting extended out to 48 hours, so our forecast issued at 4pm on Monday would potentially address snow accumulations through Wednesday. Of course, our forecast might mention snow in the forecast for Friday (four days away), but accumulations were not included. For this Winter we will add another "day" and "night" period to pass along accumulations. In the example above (forecast issued Monday afternoon), the snow accumulation would also be included (as needed) for Wednesday Night and Thurs-day. Since this is pretty far-reaching and winter forecasting can be very challenging, this part of the forecast will not be numerical, rather it will be qualitative, with phrases such as, "heavy snow accumulations possible", etc. The actual numerical snow accumulation forecast is set for the first three periods, so once again, in the example of the forecast issued on Monday afternoon, the forecast for Tuesday Night would be the last one mentioning numerical accumulations.

Know the Threat!!

Snow and Freezing Rain
Heavy snow and/or freezing ran can immobilize a region and paralyze a city. Accumulations of snow can collapse buildings and knock down trees and power lines. Rural areas may be isolated for days. It is recommended that each household have provisions and the ability to remain self-sufficient for at least 3 days without power, or help, as it may take this long to reopen main roads and reestablish vital services.

Wind Chill
Wind Chill is based on the rate of heat loss from exposed skin caused by the combined effects of wind and cold. As the wind increases, heat is carried away from the body at an accelerated rate, driving down the body temperature. Animals are also affected by wind chill. The biggest question that always comes up with wind chill is, does it affect water pipes and car radiators. The answer is no, the accelerated loss of heat occurs on exposed skin only.
Hypothermia, Warning Signs, uncontrollable shivering, memory loss, disorientation, incoherence, slurred speech, drowsiness and apparent exhaustion.

Detection
Take the person’s temperature. If below 95 degrees F, immediately seek medical care. This is a life threatening situation. If care is not immediately available, begin warming the person slowly. Warm the core first. Get the person into warm clothing and wrap them in a warm blanket covering the head and neck. Do not give the person alcohol, drugs, coffee, or any very hot beverage or food, warm broth is better. Do not warm the extremities first, this drives cold blood toward the heart and may cause heart failure.

Flooding
Winter is approaching and in addition to being cold and possibly snowy, it’s also the flood season. Leaves are beginning to fall off the trees, and the ground will either freeze or potentially become substantially wet. Leaves trap rain and regulate the rater at which it hits the ground and sinks in. Less leaves = more rain hit-ting the ground faster. Wet or frozen soils can hold much less water than dry ones, and so more water hitting the ground means more runoff, instead of percolating down into the water table. More runoff = more flooding.
The summer of 2005 was relatively wet, however late summer into fall has been pretty dry. The overall rainfall for the year 2005 to date has been much below normal over most of the area. Hence, soils are dry and there is more room for water storage in the reservoirs and water table than in normally available. The out-look for autumn and early winter flooding is lower than normal.

Frostbite
Frostbite is damage to body tissue caused by the tissue being frozen. Frostbite causes the loss of feeling and a white or pale appearance in extremities, such as fingers, toes, earlobes, or the tip of the nose. If symptoms are detected, get medical help IMMEDIATELY. If you must wait for help, slowly re-warm affected areas. If the person is also showing signs of hypothermia, warm the body core before the extremities. Remember the autumn of 2004 when four tropical storms moved across the region and soaked us down good. You always need to be on the lookout for potential flood problems. Even very dry top soil will enable flooding if enough rain falls at once. Rules of safety in rain events are:  Keep an eye on bodies of water at all times Pay attention to the weather where you are AND upstream from you NEVER drive through water running over the road Even after the rain, flooding may have secretly undermined roads beds. If you come to a closed or flooded road, TURN AROUND! DON’T DROWN! Don’t make law enforcement officials have to go looking for you next of kin. If you follow these simple rules, you will never have to say, ―The flood came up so fast, we had no warning!

Be Prepared – Keep a battery powered radio and flash-lights in working order, stock extra batteries.
Store drinking water and have food that can be prepared without an electric or gas stove. Stock emergency water and cooking supplies. Have candles and matches available in case of a power outage. Be careful how you use them.
Be certain that needed medications are available. Be Prepared for isolation at home – Make sure you have sufficient heating fuel; regular fuel sources may be cut off. Have some kind of emergency heating equipment and
fuel so that you can keep at least one room warn, but do NOT use a gas fired grill inside the home. Take measures to protect plumbing from freezing. Contact local utilities for winter tips.Keep your car or truck “winterized” - Winterizing includes being certain about antifreeze protection levels and use a gasoline additive to reduce gasoline freezing. Carry a “Winter Car Kit” that includes high energy foods, a windshield scraper, flashlight, tow rope or chain, shovel, tire chains, blanket, bag of sand or salt, fluorescent distress flag and an emergency flare – all in case you’re trapped in your vehicle by a winter storm. Keep extra gloves, mittens, hats, earmuffs and outerwear in the vehicle throughout the winter.
A Winter Weather Advisory is is-sued when ice or snow is expected to hinder travel, but conditions are not serious enough to require warnings.
Freezing rain is forecast when expected rain is likely to freeze as soon as it strikes the ground, potentially creating a coat of ice on roads and walkways. Sleet consists of small particles of ice mixed with rain. Sleet causes roads to freeze and become slippery.
A Winter Storm Watch means that severe winter weather is possible within the next
day or two.
A Winter Storm Warning means that severe winter weather conditions are expected within the next 24 hours. A blizzard warning means that heavy snow and winds of 35 mph or more are expected.
Be Prepared – Keep a battery powered radio and flashlights in working order, stock extra batteries.
Before the Storm—Preparations
Before the Storm—Know the Terms

Stay Informed – Listen to radio or television for up-dates on weather conditions. With early warning, you may avoid being caught in the storm, or at least be better prepared to cope with it.
Dress for the season : Avoid getting wet – Many layers of thin clothing are warmer than a single layer of thick clothing. Mittens are warmer than gloves. Wear a hat; most body heat is lost through the top of the head. Cover your mouth to protect lungs; don’t directly inhale extremely cold air.
Overexertion can bring on a heart attack – a major cause of death during and after winter storms – If shoveling snow isn’t critical, don’t do it. If you must shovel, don’t overexert yourself.
If you are isolated at home – Conserve fuel by keeping your house cooler than usual and by “closing off” heat to some rooms. When kerosene heaters are used, maintain ventilation to avoid toxic fumes. Use only the fuel recommended by the manufacturer and follow operating instructions. Use a carbon-monoxide detector/alarm and a smoke alarm.
Do Not Drive into Worsening Conditions – If you must travel, take winter driving seriously. Travel by daylight, and keep others informed of your schedule. Drive with extreme caution. Never try to save time by driving fast or by using back-road short-cuts.
If a Blizzard traps you in your vehicle – Pull off the highway, stay calm and remain in your vehicle where rescuers are most likely to find you. Set your directional lights to “flashing” and hang a cloth or distress flag from the radio antenna or window.
Do not set out on foot unless you can see a building close by where you know you can take shelter. Be careful: distances are distorted by blowing snow. A building may seem close, but actually may be too far away to walk to in deep snow.
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During the Storm

(1) Before evacuating your home, establish a contact person (and phone number) out of the potential disaster area where friends and relatives should “check-in” with each other.

(2) When you evacuate, consider leaving a note, securely
attached to the front door, telling where you can be reached – but only if you have reason to believe someone might come looking for you.

(3) If widespread damage occurs, insurance adjusters or others might have trouble identifying your home or finding you. After the danger is over, therefore, consider spray painting the following information somewhere that is highly visible: Name, address, insurance company, policy number and contact number
If you run the engine to keep warm, open a window slightly for ventilation. This will help protect you from possible carbon monoxide poisoning. Periodically clear away snow from the exhaust pipe.
Exercise to maintain body heat, but avoid overexertion. In extreme cold, use road maps, seat covers, and floor mats for insulation. Huddle with passengers and use your coats as blankets.
Never let everyone in the car sleep at one time. One person should always be awake to look out for rescue crews.
Be careful not to use up all battery power. Balance electrical energy needs – the use of lights, heat and radio with supply. At night, turn on the inside dome light, so work crews can spot you.

If in a remote area:
Spread a large cloth or the vehicle floor mats on the snow to attract rescue personnel who may be surveying the area from above. Once the blizzard passes, you may need to leave the car and proceed on foot to better shelter.
Keeping in Touch After any disaster, friends, relatives, insurance adjusters, etc. may need to locate you and your family.
 

In the United States, there are an estimated 25 million lightning flashes each year. During the past 30 years, lightning killed an average of 66 people per year . This is more than the average of 65 deaths per year caused by tornadoes. Yet because lightning usually claims only one or two victims at a time and does not cause mass destruction of property, it is underrated as a risk. While documented lightning injuries in the United States average about 300 per year, undocumented injuries likely much higher.